...or humankind successful expansion came with a price!
Ecology, world climate, energy resources, population growth—these are subject we should not really care about or… should we?
Remember discussing Thomas Malthus theories at school a few decades ago? In which, the population growth was accelerating madly while the resources progress at much lower rate. Well…now we are living through it!
4 billion people in the 70ies, now more than 6 billion people living on Earth and some 9 billion announced for 2050.
I got curious about how big was the population in the Paleolithic, the great beginning of our specie. Information is rather hard to find but it seems that by 10,000 B.C. human population was anywhere between 1 to 3 million people. In the early Paleolithic the fist groups of humans must have been real small, about 100,000 but with population falling dangerously low in time of crisis due to climate change or other environmental pressure.
If we compare with chimpanzees, our remote cousins, they were some 2 millions at the beginning of the 20th century and now the poor bastards are down to 200,000 at best. I have a bad feeling regarding the future for chimps and apparently…humankind has won! Hurray!
Remember speculating about oil reserves, saying it would last 50 years, even more…Well, time flies, the “peak oil” is getting closer and closer, 2025-2035 is now a period commonly mentioned for the beginning of oil production decline. We are already in 2008!
It is the law of life—to grow and expand until a balance is reached with natural and renewable resources. However humans are no “ordinary livings,” humans got used to “bend the rules,” ever since they produced tools and mastered fire.
Long before coal and oil, the pre-industrial development was fuelled by the great European forest—now gone. Massive use of fossil fuel is in progress, it’s the talk of the time and…it goes on! Humans are “too smart” for this planet.
The character of “Agent Smith” says in the movie “The Matrix:”
The shocking truth is not only that population will be “readjusted” but that the plunge will begin at the same time the peak energy will be reached—and—how soon and how fast it will happen. Studies highlight the 2030 period as when things will start to go wrong. Imagine the world population going from 9 billion to 3-5 billion by 2100 and 1-3 billion by 2200!
By comparison, global warming is a side dish! It is just an aggravating factor to a much bigger problem.
In the last few decades, access to oil has fuelled many wars on the way to world development. Diminishing recourses in energy, water and food will be the cause of more conflicts. The very reason of those wars will be the survival of one group to the expense of another group. In those conditions, I fear that whatever ethics and restrain people are still capable of today will change for the worst.
I hope to be still around by 2030 and a bit further if possible. Maybe by then only the richest will be able to afford cars—rather…armored cars!
Our children and grand-children will see more of what will follow. Hard to do anything about it, maybe the only possibility is to get prepared to do the best we can!
_______________________________________________________________________________
Various Sources
Global Warming and Energy
This website by Jean-Marc JANCOVICI, Consultant, is a wealth of articles on the subjects around energy peak, possibilities of renewable alternatives and on Global Warming. The French version of the site might be a bit more complete. Link to www.manicore.com
World population
To get information on the subject, a good place to start might be on Wikipedia because of numerous links at the end of the article. Link to Wikipedia article on population
Another good source of information is the site of "Population Reference Bureau" Link
I found this graph on PRB site, it is a revealing description of the situation, of the imbalance between populations. For sure there is poverty in the said "More Developed Countries" but what to say about the mass of the "Less developed Countries?"
Migration Pressure
An article from the Herald Tribune.
This is also tomorrow, even today! It made me think of the movie “Children of Man” taking place in a near future in UK with ghettos of foreigners being expelled from the country.
Peak Energy and Population Drop
Article hosted on the website of Financial Sense University (FSU,) treating of several other interesting questions. Link to FSU Website
It took me a while to accept that a drop in energy produced would have a direct influence on population—after all...can’t we live with a bit less energy? The truth is that, we can’t!
Less energy will mean less food production, fishing, agriculture and transport of food rely heavily on liquid fuels. A change for manual labor in the fields will probably have a negative impact on life expectancy. Industrial production will also be reduced, etc.
Another direct connection between energy, food and therefore population. The key to high agriculture yield is fertilizers and...fertilizers are mostly produced from fossil energy sources!
The article from FSU raises the problem. Those who will live through the crisis will need to find solutions—wish them luck, all of it!
"DIE OFF Website"
A “funny” article by Yaj:
Ecology, world climate, energy resources, population growth—these are subject we should not really care about or… should we?
Remember discussing Thomas Malthus theories at school a few decades ago? In which, the population growth was accelerating madly while the resources progress at much lower rate. Well…now we are living through it!
4 billion people in the 70ies, now more than 6 billion people living on Earth and some 9 billion announced for 2050.
I got curious about how big was the population in the Paleolithic, the great beginning of our specie. Information is rather hard to find but it seems that by 10,000 B.C. human population was anywhere between 1 to 3 million people. In the early Paleolithic the fist groups of humans must have been real small, about 100,000 but with population falling dangerously low in time of crisis due to climate change or other environmental pressure.
If we compare with chimpanzees, our remote cousins, they were some 2 millions at the beginning of the 20th century and now the poor bastards are down to 200,000 at best. I have a bad feeling regarding the future for chimps and apparently…humankind has won! Hurray!
Remember speculating about oil reserves, saying it would last 50 years, even more…Well, time flies, the “peak oil” is getting closer and closer, 2025-2035 is now a period commonly mentioned for the beginning of oil production decline. We are already in 2008!
It is the law of life—to grow and expand until a balance is reached with natural and renewable resources. However humans are no “ordinary livings,” humans got used to “bend the rules,” ever since they produced tools and mastered fire.
Long before coal and oil, the pre-industrial development was fuelled by the great European forest—now gone. Massive use of fossil fuel is in progress, it’s the talk of the time and…it goes on! Humans are “too smart” for this planet.
The character of “Agent Smith” says in the movie “The Matrix:”
“Human beings are a disease, a cancer of this planet. You are a plague. And we are... the cure.”In our real world there must be a cure too, and the cure might be as bad as the problem! Eventually, population size will have to match available resources.
The shocking truth is not only that population will be “readjusted” but that the plunge will begin at the same time the peak energy will be reached—and—how soon and how fast it will happen. Studies highlight the 2030 period as when things will start to go wrong. Imagine the world population going from 9 billion to 3-5 billion by 2100 and 1-3 billion by 2200!
By comparison, global warming is a side dish! It is just an aggravating factor to a much bigger problem.
In the last few decades, access to oil has fuelled many wars on the way to world development. Diminishing recourses in energy, water and food will be the cause of more conflicts. The very reason of those wars will be the survival of one group to the expense of another group. In those conditions, I fear that whatever ethics and restrain people are still capable of today will change for the worst.
I hope to be still around by 2030 and a bit further if possible. Maybe by then only the richest will be able to afford cars—rather…armored cars!
Our children and grand-children will see more of what will follow. Hard to do anything about it, maybe the only possibility is to get prepared to do the best we can!
_______________________________________________________________________________
Various Sources
Global Warming and Energy
This website by Jean-Marc JANCOVICI, Consultant, is a wealth of articles on the subjects around energy peak, possibilities of renewable alternatives and on Global Warming. The French version of the site might be a bit more complete. Link to www.manicore.com
Climate change, energy, and a couple billion men... Link to head page of articles
World population
To get information on the subject, a good place to start might be on Wikipedia because of numerous links at the end of the article. Link to Wikipedia article on population
Another good source of information is the site of "Population Reference Bureau" Link
I found this graph on PRB site, it is a revealing description of the situation, of the imbalance between populations. For sure there is poverty in the said "More Developed Countries" but what to say about the mass of the "Less developed Countries?"Migration Pressure
An article from the Herald Tribune.
This is also tomorrow, even today! It made me think of the movie “Children of Man” taking place in a near future in UK with ghettos of foreigners being expelled from the country.
Europe's leaders warned of big rise in migration
By Stephen Castle
Herald Tribune, Friday, March 7, 2008 Link to article
Peak Energy and Population Drop
Article hosted on the website of Financial Sense University (FSU,) treating of several other interesting questions. Link to FSU Website
Editorial: Global peak energy Implications for future human populationsIt is fairly easy to understand why the curve for population growth matches closely the curve for increase of energy produced and consumed.
by Chris Clugston 09-12-2007 Link to article
“…regarding the specific consequences associated with our current and projected energy consumption behavior—devastating reductions in human population levels and living standards.”
It took me a while to accept that a drop in energy produced would have a direct influence on population—after all...can’t we live with a bit less energy? The truth is that, we can’t!
Less energy will mean less food production, fishing, agriculture and transport of food rely heavily on liquid fuels. A change for manual labor in the fields will probably have a negative impact on life expectancy. Industrial production will also be reduced, etc.
Another direct connection between energy, food and therefore population. The key to high agriculture yield is fertilizers and...fertilizers are mostly produced from fossil energy sources!
Shortage and price of fertilizer threatens to make more hungry
By Keith Bradsher and Andrew Martin
Herald Tribune, Thursday, May 1, 2008 Link to article
The article from FSU raises the problem. Those who will live through the crisis will need to find solutions—wish them luck, all of it!
“Humanity has never experienced a trip down the post-peak (decline) side of the Total Available Energy Curve—facing continuous and irreversible declines in the resource that serves as the basis for our very existence; we have only traveled up the pre-peak (growth) side. There has always been “more”, and an expectation of “more”—never “less”. The psychological implications associated with an “inverted expectation paradigm”, in which things always get worse instead of always getting better, are unprecedented.”
“The methods by which human populations react to these circumstances—especially populations in developed countries who will feel the impact of global peak energy most severely, and especially reactions as they relate to “forced” or “involuntary” population level reductions—will be pivotal in determining not only whether we survive as a species, but whether we survive as a civilized species.”
"DIE OFF Website"
"If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst."
—Thomas Hardy
Article: The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge
Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D.1
November 13, 2000 Link to article
The information is similar in nature to the article from Chris Clugston, except that it is a few years older. Actually it seems that several people are working on the same doomsday predictions. So far—not much impact on our “responsible leaders.” Ignorance is bliss!
A “funny” article by Yaj:
Report of the Dominant Animal Life on the Third Planet: Executive Summary, by Yaj, January 24, 1997 Link to articleThe graph at the end of the article dated 1998 would probably need an update but is a very good presentation of the interaction between the different factors.
Comments
Food shortages due to clilmate change et environmental problems will probably occur. If you add peak oil, that is a situation rather uncomfortable.
It is easy to lose what you have when you have nothing. But, the question is: how rich people such as Europeans and North Americans will react to this "decrease" in their way of life?